Polling and Pollsters
Guest: Mario Canseco, Research Co.
In this edition of Journal, we take a close look at the art of pollsters. You know – if you want to know what your neighbours are thinking, or what Canada is thinking, ask a pollster.
Poillievre is ahead of Trudeau by 20 points. Or now Carney is ahead, maybe. Or 45% of Americans think Trump is doing a swell job.
And then we remember 2016, when the majority of American pollsters said with confidence that Hilary would win the election. Then she didn’t. Whoops.
Since that time, much self-examination has been going on in the world of pollsters. Who is your sample? How do you reach people when many don’t have a landline anymore or don’t answer their cell when they don’t recognize the number? Or how about those cagey folks who give the wrong answer just to complicate the results?
So, like it or not, polls play a big role in how we see the issues of our time.
What intrigues me is what the pollsters see behind the numbers. After all, they are looking at these questions over and over. What trends are they identifying? What changes are happening? What does it mean?
Mario Canseco is president of a well-respected and often quoted Canadian company, Research Co. He looks beyond the obvious question of which party are you going to vote for. He wants to know the why and who you are. A senior? A young man? Someone in the sandwich generation caught between raising a family and caring for aging parents?
And how do you capture in numbers the worries and uneasy feelings of the average Canadian? That’s where the analysis comes in.
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